Considering the chaos reigning in the streets of Libya, we present this 2011 assessment by Strafor.com, labelled by Wikileaks as a ‘global intelligence’ company headquartered in Texas. This communique came as the result of a Stratfor.com VP of Global Analysis, Reva Bhalla meeting with Pentagon officials who offered the White House’s stance on the Libyan Revolution.
We believe it is still relevant to the Libyan people today. To understand how the Libyan Revolution was viewed in the White House in April 2011 may aid the Libyan people in their assessment of events occurring on the streets of Libya today.
Disturbingly, we see that The United States was willing to break up Libya into East/West sectors AND give the west to Muammar Gaddafi. According to Ms. Bhalla, the Pentagon was considering setting up a ‘useful North African platform’ in the east of Libya to refill and launch ‘other missions into the Middle East.’
Finally, at the time Libyans were dying in a revolution against 42 years of tyranny, we found Ms. Bhalla’s statement chilling:
‘… if you first define the mission, then you can stop giving the Eastern rebels hope that they can actually make it to Tripoli, focus on Cyrenaica and be satisfied with an East-West split.’
‘…you can stop giving the Eastern rebels hope …and be satisfied with an East-West split.’ This callous advice is the elimination of a people’s hope for self-determination and unity within their country defined by their borders.
Considering this 2011 assessment, what is the White House’s view of the Libyan Revolution today?
We compiled the significant highlights from the April 2011 email:
- ‘to clarify, the current debate as I see it is one that is playing out between surging ISR, arming rebels and moving toward the West v. acceptance of stalemate and east-west split in realizing that forcing regime change will open up a can of worms that we don’t want to deal with. still undecided overall which direction US will go in’
- ‘3) Somehow pressure Ghadafi into a ceasefire and negotiated settlement. WHat that settlement looks like is unclear. A transitional government (that’s likely to fail), exile or allowing him (Gaddafi) to keep the West and East does its own thing.’
- ‘Overall, I’m getting the impression that the US doesn’t think stalemate is all that bad an idea. The thinking that seems* to be prevailing is that forcing immediate regime change could end up causing the US a lot more problems. So, let’s not rush this thing.’
- ‘What I was discussing with them is basically that if you first define the mission, then you can stop giving the Eastern rebels hope that they can actually make it to Tripoli, focus on Cyrenaica and be satisfied with an East-West split.’
- ‘CIA mission is just collecting info right now and mil can’t depend on them. US is trying to set up contingencies for where if things go bad and chaos erupts, Ghadafi gets shot, etc, they have teams of Special Forces to send in.’
- ‘These guys are also trying to come up with all the strategic benefits of basing out of eastern Libya for refueling and other missions in Mideast. Potentially useful North Africa platform, but is it worth the cost?’
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